Project Type
AP09259049
"Schedule Delays, Cost Overruns, and Risk Behavior: A Methodology for Forecasting Project Success under Uncertainty"
About The Research
In Kazakhstan, the majority of infrastructure and investment projects are delivered with schedule delays and cost overruns; oftentimes caused by unforeseen risks and uncertain environment. Therefore, project-intensive industries need the proposed analytical methodology to forecast duration and cost estimates of their real-time projects. This will help to avoid the above problems, or understand better risks. This is important in light of realization of Initiatives 2.13, 3.27, and 5.10 of Strategic development plan of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2025, which aims to realize projects in high-technology industries, improve transportation and logistics infrastructure, and build smart cities for sustainable urbanization.
Achieved Outcomes
Expected Result 1
Expected Result 2
State-of-the-art of EVM and PRMS research. It is expected that the review will be divided into 3 categories: EDAC forecasting methods, ECAC forecasting methods, and DC/CC management methods.
Duration Forecasting Model considering the impact of PRMS. It is expected the model development will follow 3 steps: 1) GM parameters identification; 2) EDAC calculation; 3) DC integration into the EDAC model. The model will be developed using nonlinear regression modeling on Minitab statistical package and RanGen schedule simulation.
Expected Result 3
Cost Forecasting Model considering the impact of PRMS. It is expected the model development will follow 3 steps: 1) GM parameters identification; 2) ECAC calculation; 3) CC integration into the ECAC model. The model will be developed using nonlinear regression modeling on Minitab statistical package and RanGen schedule simulation.
Expected Result 4
Validated risk-integrated duration and cost forecasting methodology. It is expected that the model, built into the MS Excel spreadsheets, will consist of 3 features: 1) its ability to forecast final duration; 2) its ability to forecast final cost; 3) its ability to reflect in EDAC and ECAC estimates the DC/CC spending patterns.
Expected Result 5
Results of estimates by the proposed methodology compared with existing analogs. It is expected that the EDAC and ECAC estimates by the proposed methodology will be compared with existing index-based and statistics-based methods by Project Management Institute and American Society of Civil Engineers, which is used in practice.
Expected Result 6
Project website and EDAC and ECAC forecasting software. The website will be based on HTML-3.0 with Cascading Style Sheets (CSS). Duration and cost forecasting software will be developed in 3 phases. Phase 1 – the software based on EVM and PRMS, Phase 2 – the software considering DC/CC spending, and Phase 3 Software development completion – the software based on EVM and PRMS and considering DC/CC spending in EDAC и ECAC. Programming language: C++ and VB.NET.